Summary of Predicted Earthquakes and the Damage
Massive Earthquake with an epicenter in Nankai Trough (shallow trench) that would trigger Tokai/Tonankai/Nankai Earthquakes (Cabinet Office Review Board)
The estimated 21 meter-high Tsunami at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant which is located within the predicted epicentral area of Tokai Earthquake is more than the standardized emergency safety measures (15 meters) which have been directed to each electric company by the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency at Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry after the Great East Japan Earthquake. That is higher than the level that is being built currently at the said Nuclear Power Plant (18 meters) and it would flood the Power Plant. The fundamental review of the safety measures is now most urgently necessary. If Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant explodes, the radiation will reach the Greater Tokyo Area in 6 hours.
Tokai Earthquake has been occurring regularly in 100 to 150 year cycle. The last one was Ansei Tokai Earthquake in 1854 and it’s been 157 years since. Tokai Earthquake can occur any time. Tokai earthquake may trigger the eruption of Mt. Fuji.
Earthquake in Greater Tokyo Area
This has been concluded by the special project research of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The research team has concluded the magnitude 7 inland earthquake can occur any minute. They have also publicly announced that the scale of Tokyo Bay Northern Area Earthquake which is one of the possible earthquakes of Greater Tokyo Area Inland Earthquake is predicted to be intensity scale of 7, more than the previously anticipated intensity scale 6 upper. This was due to the recently discovered fact that the boundary of the sinking Philippine Sea Plate and the continental plate was approximately 10 kilometers shallower than previously believed. The Japanese scale 7 is expected to be experienced in the bay area, and the mouth of Tama River. The probability of Greater Tokyo Area Inland Earthquake is 70% within the next four years.* (Preliminary calculation by Tokyo Univ. Research Center 11: 24 1/23/12 Sankei News [Earthquake, Tsunami, Geoscience]) * Later lowered to 50%. 28% in the next 5 years according to the research of Kyoto University.
In case of the Greater Tokyo area earthquake, there will be stranded people in high-rise buildings (people stranded in high rise apartments and office buildings), stranded commuters (6,500,000 people), displaced evacuees (there would be shortage of space equivalent to 12 Tokyo Domes)